An interesting article from http://www.ucg.org/ about the rivalry between India and China. This follows this post about the Christmas tree. For a free magazine subscription or to get the book shown for free click HERE! or call 1-888-886- 8632.

World News and Trends- India and China: the diplomatic conflict

article by Jerold Aust, John Ross Schroeder

What may help America in countering Chinese ambitions, at least temporarily, is the current diplomatic conflict between China and India.

What may help America in countering Chinese ambitions, at least temporarily, is the current diplomatic conflict between China and India. David Blair, covering Chinese affairs for London's Daily Telegraph, recently wrote, "India, revitalized and self-confident, sees itself as a barrier to the vaulting ambition of its age-old rival [China]" ( The Sunday Telegraph, Sept. 14, 2008).
Advantageous for New Delhi is that " India sits like an ancient aircraft carrier across Chinese shipping lanes." According to The Telegraph, "The two giant powers are long-standing rivals who share a disputed 2,100-mile border and are waging a diplomatic struggle for influence in Asia . They fought a border war in 1962, which ended in victory for China and left Beijing in control of 16,500 square miles of territory claimed by India" (Sept. 16, 2008).
China has a potential Achilles' heel in the Strait of Malacca, the shipping lanes that may be the site for a future military conflict between India and the Chinese republic. In contrast, India worries that Chinese courting of Pakistan and Myanmar will lead to the encirclement of the subcontinent nation. The United States is cooperating with and supporting India, as the two countries have obvious mutual interests in countering and containing Chinese ambitions.
David Blair concluded in another of his Telegraph articles that "China and India, which together comprise almost 40% of the world's population, harbour a longstanding rivalry which could shake the world in future decades" (Sept. 16, 2008). (Sources: The Sunday Telegraph [London], Telegraph.co.uk.)

India: A Nation on the Rise

An interesting article from http://www.ucg.org/ about India as a rising power. This follows this post about the dangers of ideology. For a free magazine subscription or to get the book shown for free click HERE! or call 1-888-886-8632.

India: A Nation on the Rise






article by Melvin Rhodes





The former "jewel in the crown" of the British Empire, India is one of Asia's great economic success stories. With economic might comes military might. What lies ahead for this country of over a billion people, other nations in the region and the larger world scene?







Source: stock.xchng/asifthebesWe were being shown around the Red Fort in Agra, India. Our tour guide was an elderly man who had spent his whole life in India. As our tour began he asked where we were from, and I said, "America." Towards the end of the tour of the old Mughal fort, I saw a raised burial site in the middle of the fort complex and asked who was buried there. "An Englishman," he said. I responded by telling him that I was originally from England.



He then brightened up and said, "Before, when you said you were from America, I liked you. But now I love you." He put his arms around me and gave me a big hug.



He then explained, telling us that his father and his grandfather both served in the British military prior to independence from Great Britain in August 1947. "They had great respect for the British," he said. He added, "Now we are suffering." I asked him in what way. He said that it was too costly to live with all the corruption, a problem that did not exist in colonial times.



It was an interesting conversation on one of the biggest problems India faces today—corruption.



But it was also a reminder that India played a major role in the British Empire for two centuries, when a third of the British military was made up of native Indian troops. In World War II, two million Indians volunteered to fight for Britain, the biggest volunteer army in the history of the world.



Once again, India is becoming a significant military force, with a powerful role in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. "In fact," as author Robert Kaplan writes in a recent book titled Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power, "India hopes a nexus of east-west roads and energy pipelines will ultimately give it soft power dominance over the former territorial India of the (British) Raj, which encompassed Pakistan, Bangladesh and Burma" (2010, p. 13).



The power balance is shifting—in the region and in the world at large. India and neighboring Asian nations are on the rise while American influence in the region and around the globe weakens. What will these developments eventually lead to?



Corruption and sectarian conflict

Besides the history and the news of systemic corruption, I learned a great deal more from our guide in India.



He told us that he was a Sikh by religion. As he was bareheaded, I expressed surprise since Sikh men normally wear turbans. He explained that he had to remove his turban and shave his head in 1984 following the assassination of Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi by two Sikh bodyguards.



Following her cremation three days after she was repeatedly shot by the two men, millions of Sikhs were displaced and 3,000 killed in extensive rioting. As Mrs. Gandhi's son Rajiv put it, "When a big tree falls, the earth shakes." Our guide chose to remove his turban so as not to be conspicuous, in an effort to stay alive and take care of his family.



Rajiv himself was assassinated less than seven years later by Tamil nationalists angry at India's involvement in neighboring Sri Lanka's civil war, where Tamil nationalists were fighting for independence from predominantly Buddhist Sri Lanka.



These sectarian conflicts go back centuries. At independence, British India was divided between predominantly Hindu India and Muslim Pakistan (the latter subdivided into East and West, separated by nearly 1,000 miles). Less than a quarter century later, East Pakistan broke away from West Pakistan and became Bangladesh.



Yet India itself, though mostly Hindu, still has many Muslims—in fact, the second- largest Muslim population in the world at about 160 million. In addition, there are sizable numbers of Sikhs and Christians. Christians are less than 3 percent of the population, but that still works out to several tens of millions of people.



While corruption and sectarianism remain serious challenges for all governments in India, the country can point to many positive accomplishments.



A vibrant, thriving nation

Visiting the country for the first time, I was struck by its vitality. Whereas America's streets are largely empty of pedestrian traffic, India's are teeming with thousands and thousands of people, as far as the eye can see.



They are all moving, anxious to make money in whatever business pursuit they are involved in. All this energy has contributed to making India one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.



Service is second to none. Those employed in the hotel industry could not do enough to make our stay more comfortable. We were greatly impressed.



Another accomplishment is the fact that India remains a democracy 65 years after independence. Neighboring countries have had periods of military rule when their constitutions were suspended or rewritten, but India has remained the world's biggest democracy, now with well over a billion people.



Along with a functioning democratic system, India has a thriving free press. I looked forward to reading The Times of India and other papers each morning. Journalists are certainly not afraid to criticize their leaders.



While we were there the papers (and government leaders) were not afraid to criticize the United States after President Obama called on India to open its economy more to U.S. investment. They did not appreciate a lecture from Washington, capital of a country that appears to be in rapid economic decline while India is growing.



Indian television news spent some time focused on the fact that the country's growth rate has recently dropped to 7.6 percent, a cause of great national concern. The U.S. growth rate is roughly a quarter of that, while Great Britain is in negative growth. The eurozone is in an even bigger mess.



It's difficult to understand why Western nations still give aid to India when India is clearly doing better than they are. Britain, for example, gives more aid to India than to any other nation.



Waning respect for the declining West

Not only are Western economies in decline, but respect in Asia for the former European colonial powers and the United States is also in decline, as Western values have dramatically liberalized. People often commented on our Western television shows and movies and the degenerate values portrayed on both.



There was also consternation in both India and Sri Lanka over the British prime minister's speech at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Perth, Australia, in October 2011. David Cameron urged former British colonies to liberalize their laws on homosexuality and same-sex marriage, laws originally given to them by the British! The Bible says that "righteousness exalts a nation, but sin is a reproach to any people" (Proverbs 14:34Righteousness exalteth a nation: but sin is a reproach to any people.



See All...).



In a number of conversations, people remarked on the breakdown of the family in the West. The comment was made that no Indian man would ever walk out on his family. The divorce rate there is 1.1 percent compared to the United States and United Kingdom, where about half of all marriages end in divorce.



Interestingly, the high Western divorce rate was blamed on "love marriages," where everyone chooses their own mate. Indian marriages are more successful, it was said, because most are "arranged marriages," determined by parents. Although choosing your partner has become more common in modern India, the cultural values and negative stigma on divorce also play vital roles in the low divorce rate.



What is clear is that "intact" families do not become a burden on the state. The breakdown of the traditional family is a major contributing factor in rising government spending in Western countries.



This, in turn, contributes to a decline in military power. As a recent article in The Wall Street Journal showed, the choice is increasingly between food stamps—to alleviate poverty, mostly caused by family breakdown—and national defense (Mackenzie Eaglen, "Defense vs. Food Stamps—What Would You Choose?" Aug. 7, 2012). The United States is no longer able to afford both.



The new superpowers of Asia

America's economic decline must inevitably lead to military decline. At the same time, India's economic rise must lead to a greater military role in the region. The same applies to China. These two countries are the new superpowers of Asia.



Bible prophecy shows the rise of a major military bloc east of the Holy Land able to put together a 200-million-man army immediately prior to Christ's return (Revelation 9:16And the number of the army of the horsemen were two hundred thousand thousand: and I heard the number of them.



See All...). This military force emerges onto the world scene east of the River Euphrates, the eastern border of the Roman Empire 2,000 years ago.



This prophecy doesn't specify whether this is the military forces of just one nation or an alliance of nations. But a later phase of end-time conflict will involve a group of Eastern powers—the Euphrates River being dried up "so that the way of the kings from the east might be prepared" (Revelation 16:12And the sixth angel poured out his vial upon the great river Euphrates; and the water thereof was dried up, that the way of the kings of the east might be prepared.



See All..., emphasis added).



In any case, such a force is only possible with considerable wealth.



India, China and other smaller Asian nations are benefiting from open markets in the West, an opportunity for them to sell their finished products cheaply to Americans and Europeans. They're even lending to Western nations the money to purchase these goods from them!



It could be said that the interest payments the Asian countries receive from Western nations, particularly the United States, are enabling them to build up their military might.



It never seems to occur to anybody in the West that they might be trying to do exactly what America did to the Soviet Union. Under President Ronald Reagan the United States built up its military, forcing the Soviets to try to keep up, thereby leading them into national bankruptcy. Could the same thing happen to the United States as it tries to maintain its lead over China and other emerging powers? Of course it could!



"Although China's expanded regional interaction and influence is a natural reflection of China's growing economic strength and attendant political and military influence, a rising China poses a challenge to U.S. interests" ("Washington's Long Turn East," Stratfor Global Intelligence, Aug. 31, 2012).



American preeminence in jeopardy—as Britain's before it

Returning to Bible prophecy, it's important to understand that the United States and Britain are descendants of the biblical patriarch Joseph, one of the 12 sons of Jacob, later renamed Israel. Joseph's two sons were prophesied to become a great nation and a multitude of nations (Genesis 48:18And Joseph said unto his father, Not so, my father: for this is the firstborn; put thy right hand upon his head.



See All...)—fulfilled in the United States and the former British Empire and Commonwealth (see our free Bible study aid The United States and Britain in Bible Prophecy to learn more).



In Leviticus 26 and Deuteronomy 28, the descendants of Israel were promised tremendous blessings for obeying the laws of God and were warned of great negative consequences for disobedience.



In Deuteronomy 28:43-44 [43] The stranger that is within thee shall get up above thee very high; and thou shalt come down very low.

[44] He shall lend to thee, and thou shalt not lend to him: he shall be the head, and thou shalt be the tail.





See All... God warned, referring to gentiles or non-Israelites: "The alien who is among you shall rise higher and higher above you, and you shall come down lower and lower. He shall lend to you, but you shall not lend to him; he shall be the head, and you shall be the tail." What this means for the times ahead is that the nations that America and Britain are indebted to will call the shots. They will soon be dictating to us—and it's all because of our national sins, our progressively turning away from God.



It should be remembered that the geopolitical map of the world is never the same two days in a row. The world is constantly changing. As one nation declines, so others emerge—until conflict ensues.



A major turning point in Asia came during World War II with the fall of Singapore in February 1942, when British forces surrendered it to Japan. Although the Western allies were eventually triumphant against the Japanese, irreparable damage had been done. The British were no longer seen as invincible.



Within a few years after the end of the Second World War, Britain gave independence to its Asian territories. The fall of the empire changed the balance of power in the region—leading eventually to the creation of two new nuclear powers, India and Pakistan.



At the time of India's independence, nobody thought that Britain would completely pull out of Asia and cease to be a global power. Yet once the decline started it sped up, and Britain's imperial power went into a rapid downward spiral. Could the same happen again with the decline of the United States, Britain's successor in Asia and elsewhere?



The current path's days are numbered

What effect will the decline of American power have on the region? That's the subject of Robert Kaplan's book Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power. He concludes that "the U.S. military, with its sheer size and ability to deploy rapidly, will still be indispensable, even as the United States itself plays a more modest political role, and other, once-poor nations rise up and leverage one another" (p. 16). Other nations, especially India and China, are certainly rising up.



However, as with Britain, the future may turn out to be quite different, with America playing a diminished role, if any. The Wall Street Journal 's David Wessel, in his book Red Ink, quotes former Congressional Budget Office director Bob Reischauer on the state of the U.S. deficit: "We're driving seventy miles an hour toward a cliff . . . And when we reach that cliff will be determined by events over which we have very little control. The path we're on can't go on for fifteen years. Whether it can go on for two, three, four years, I have no idea" (p. 129).



The aforementioned Wall Street Journal article highlighted the fact that U.S. military forces have seen three straight years of spending cuts. The threat of sequestration (automatic spending cuts being triggered by law) hangs over the defense budget, which now faces a further cut of half a trillion dollars beginning in January.



And then there is India.



A global high-tech leader, this nation of growing power and influence is planning a mission to Mars. It is also the world's biggest importer of weapons, an indicator of where it is headed in terms of military power.



On the downside, it has a major problem with poverty and corruption. Additionally, the recent power failure that affected most of the country showed it has serious problems with its infrastructure.



But these problems are not likely to hinder its relentless climb to superpower status in a region that is rapidly changing.

.

Obama decries oppression of Christians in Egypt -- no, wait...

A very interesting post from www.jihadwatch.org about the Christians suffering in Egypt under Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood. This follows this post about a possible terror attempt to poison the water supply of Boston. This follows this article about American energy independence and preventing money from going to hostile countries such as Iran . For more about what is happening in the nation now click here and you can read two very interesting books HERE!

Obama decries oppression of Christians in Egypt -- no, wait...


Actually, he sent teargas to the Muslim Brotherhood oppressors of Christians. "Obama vows US support as Myanmar leader visits," by Matthew Pennington and Nedra Pickler for the Associated Press, May 21:



WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Barack Obama on Monday told Myanmar's president during a long-awaited White House meeting that he appreciates the Asian leader's efforts to lead the country on its sometimes difficult path to democracy and assured him of U.S. support.

Obama spoke as he sat in the Oval Office with former general Thein Sein, who became the first president of Myanmar to visit the White House in 47 years. Activists object to the invitation because of concerns over human rights in the country, but it marks a turnaround in international acceptance for Myanmar after decades of isolation and direct military rule....



In a speech at a university in Washington, Thein Sein called for a new era in U.S.-Myanmar relations. On domestic challenges, he vowed to ensure that communal violence between Buddhists and minority Muslims that has claimed hundreds of lives over the past year would be brought to a halt and that all the perpetrators are brought to justice.



Obama said he expressed concern about violence against Muslims in the country. "The displacement of people, the violence directed toward them needs to stop," he said....



Posted by Robert

This Is the Way...Two Men and a Valley

An interesting article from http://www.ucg.org/  about an opium farming valley. This follows this post about the new definitions of family being thrust upon us.  For a free magazine subscription or to get this book for free click HERE! or call 1-888-886-8632.

This Is the Way...Two Men and a Valley

article by Robin Webber





This is the story of so many young men who have put on the uniforms of their respective countries.



In a world away and a lifetime apart from most of us, there lies a small and delicate valley tucked away into the steep and gorgeous hill country between Thailand and Burma (Myanmar). There above the jungle-clad slopes, punctuated with picturesque rice paddies filtering down to quaint tribal villages below, stand two young men of Asia who have never spoken to one another. In fact, they have never met. They merely know one another from afar.



This is their story. This is the story of so many young men who have put on the uniforms of their respective countries. And, it touches a truth in our lives.



Recently, my wife and I traveled to Thailand to take part in a Christian leadership training program for local leaders who serve tribal groups and refugee camps in northern Thailand and Burma. After the seminar was completed, we went about three hours north of Chiang Mai, Thailand, towards our intended destination, the Royal Agricultural Project, which hovers in the shadows of the Burmese border.



Here, nearly 30 years ago, the current monarch, King Bhumibol Adulyadej of Thailand, invested his royal prestige and influence in developing a project that would teach the highland people how to turn from the cash crop of opium to farming profitable long-term crops. This was quite an undertaking and transformation of an entire mind-set. These local residents had to overcome the very real pulls of "cashing" in on the profitable drug trade of exporting opium.



A cloud over Shangri-la



As we came over the horizon and looked down on the royal project, thoughts of "Shangri-la" flooded my mind. The luscious green slopes eased down to neatly tended farmland of orchards, meticulously planted rows of vegetables and greenhouses full of produce. The locals seemed happy and content. It was a joy just meandering through such a renaissance atmosphere of transformation and renewal. I saw a small type of the biblical prophet Micah's millennial vision: "But everyone shall sit under his vine and under his fig tree, and no one shall make them afraid" (Micah 4:4But they shall sit every man under his vine and under his fig tree; and none shall make them afraid: for the mouth of the LORD of hosts hath spoken it.



See All...).



My mind snapped back to the present as our hosts then mentioned to us, "Burma is right there!" My eyes slowly traveled away from the valley floor up the slopes opposite where we had come. Suddenly a feeling of foreboding clambered through me. The Thai and Burmese people have been at loggerheads for centuries. Oftentimes, the border area is shut down due to political rivalries, ethnic tensions or military operations. Suddenly, Shangri-la had a cloud over it.



An hour later, we were in a quaint village of tribal hill people whose lifestyle remains the same as it has been for many centuries. Their village rests on a thin rim of mountain strand looking down on curving slopes streaming down to the flatlands below. Chickens strutted across the road and piglets scampered across the gravelly stretch in front of us in search of their next whimsical adventure. Smiling and curious children were seemingly everywhere, and we walked up and down the streets with them. Immediately, we were "buddies," even though we couldn't speak a word of their tongue.



We are here; come no further



The placidity melted, as we moved up the road a short distance to a small army post. It struck me that the presence of this small fort says, "We are here; come no further." On this small ragged bluff, 15 young men stand ready to thwart any incursion from neighboring Burma.



A young officer came out to see what the commotion was all about. Our Thai-speaking host asked the officer if we might walk up to the outskirts of the border outpost, which is lined with sand-bagged trenches and bunkers, and have a look. Before and below the one lone soldier on duty was a deep mountain ravine, and a couple of hundred yards across the ravine was another fort with an identically situated young sentry. Two nations, two forts, two men, one valley—all come together in tropical paradise.



Something is terribly wrong here.



As we look through a pair of military binoculars, we see a Burmese soldier staring at us through his binoculars. As close as we are, we remain worlds apart and unable to meet each other.



I began to think how often in a day, every day, every month, every year and every decade do the two solitary sentries of Burma and Thailand stand alone, occasionally observing one another through their binoculars.



They simply wait and stare



Do you suppose they ever consider what the other is thinking? Where he is from? Is he married? Does he have a family?



They arise to the same sun, breathe the same mountain air, feel the chill of the morning and the same noontime warmth of tropical sun. They hear the same birds as they soar and dive into the valley before them. They get wet from the same thundercloud and see the same rainbows. But they only know one another by fixed stares through binoculars. Two men of Asia, alone, in a valley. They do not speak. They do not move forward. They simply wait and stare.



There are so many other valleys where other men face each other, standing guard. Valleys in Pakistan, India, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Chechnya, as well as the urban canyons of Belfast, Medellin and Hebron.



In the aftermath of World War I, Erich Maria Remarque wrote an epic antiwar novel titled All Quiet on the Western Front. It is the story of young German lads who gladly go off to serve the Fatherland thinking that they will shortly return to finish school and life will go on just like it was before. But they soon come to understand the ever-so-true maxim of "war never leaves a nation where it found it." They are about to meet the enemy in the close quarters of battle, and they find the enemy is the same as they are.



A man just like me



The pivotal point of the book is when the main character, young Paul Baumer, meets the other side. Pinned down in a foxhole with machine-gun bullets whizzing overhead, he sits and waits, hoping against hope that the enemy will pass by. In a brief but brutal hand-to-hand combat with an enemy soldier, Baumer mortally wounds him. His victim dies slowly, and the victor reflects on how much like himself the dying man is.



"If only he had run two yards farther to the left, he might now be sitting in the trench over there and writing a fresh letter to his wife... The silence spreads. I talk and must talk. So I speak to him and say to him: 'Comrade, I did not want to kill you. If you jumped in here again, I would not do it, if you would be sensible too. But you were an idea to me before, an abstraction that lived in my mind and called forth its appropriate response. It was that abstraction I stabbed. But now, for the first time, I see you are a man like me. I thought of your hand-grenades, of your bayonet, of your rifle; now I see your wife and your face and our fellowship.



"'Forgive me, comrade. We always see it too late. Why do they never tell us that you are just poor devils like us, that your mothers are just as anxious as ours, and that we have the same fear of death, and the same dying and the same agony—Forgive me, comrade; how could you be my enemy? If we threw away these rifles and this uniform you could be my brother just like Kat and Albert. Take twenty years of my life, comrade and stand up—take more, for I do not know what I can even attempt to do with it now'" (1929, p. 227).



Remarque wrote this over 70 years ago, but it might as well be today.



The Sun of Righteousness shall arise



As we walk away from the bunkers and trenches, 15 of Thailand's native sons slowly lower the Thai colors to the singing of the national anthem. It is getting darker by the second as I look over the forest to the sun going down over the hills of Burma just yards away. I think to myself that the exact same ceremony is playing out just across the valley with another group of young men, another flag and another song. There is a greater shadow lurking here than that cast by the men guarding the sovereignty of two nations. It is the darkness of human nature left to its own devices.



Nearly 50 years ago, the Cold War statesman John Foster Dulles put it so well when he stated, "The world will never have lasting peace so long as men reserve for war the finest human qualities." We often equate peace as being "the absence of conflict," rather than the true peace that comes by the presence of workable solutions. As the Thai flag went down with the sun, I could not but sense the need for another light to arise and shine on these two men of Asia, and the humble village and the beautiful farming valley below.



Malachi's words came to mind: "But to you who fear my name the Sun of Righteousness shall arise with healing in His wings" (4:2). The healing that Jesus Christ, the ultimate Light of this world, is going to bring is more than a temporary cessation of hostilities between age-old enemies. It is the way to permanent peace through God's Spirit. Only Christ's way will reverse mankind's shameless record of but 300 years of recorded peace in over 6,000 years of recorded history.



What enables the vision of Micah, cited in the beginning? In his words: "They shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruning hooks; nation shall not raise sword against nation, neither shall they learn war anymore" (4:3). A change of heart makes it possible for this marvelous image to become reality.



Put down those binoculars



Sitting in the dark with my wife, as our host drove down the long and winding roads to the flatland below, I turned over again and again in my head how often I've been in the dark when it comes to what I can control. I'm not responsible for the Thai and Burmese people at this time. God will have to deal with them and the rest of the world.



But I, too, have so often maintained a "binocular mentality" of simply standing and staring at another person from a distance. There I stand as I wonder and ponder his every movement over the same valley of bloodline, beliefs or shared experience. There I stand simply holding my ground, rather than putting down the binoculars to gain a wider perspective of what needs to happen. And what is needed is to "wage peace" with real answers, rather than war with all my good excuses.



Do you have binoculars like mine? Maybe it's time to put them down, and start walking down into the valley never walked before, towards that person who is really a lot like you. It is then we demonstrate the encouraging refrain found in Isaiah 30:21And thine ears shall hear a word behind thee, saying, This is the way, walk ye in it, when ye turn to the right hand, and when ye turn to the left.



See All..., "This is the way, walk in it."

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How to Win a War Against CHINA!

A very interesting post from www.stratfor.com about China's chokepoint vulnerablilties including Indonesia as one. This follows this post about Chinese jets chasing American planes. This follows this article about the recent news about the former ban on offshore drilling which would encourage American energy independence and prevent money from going to hostile countries such as Iran   and Venezuela. For more that you can do to get involved click HERE and read this very interesting book HERE!


Geopolitical Journey: Indonesia's Global Significance


STRATFOR


By George Friedman



I am writing this from Indonesia. Actually, that is not altogether a fair statement. I am at the moment in Bali and just came from Jakarta. The two together do not come close to being Indonesia. Jakarta, the capital, is a vast city that is striking to me for its traffic. It takes an enormous amount of time to get anywhere in Jakarta. Like most cities, it was not built to accommodate cars, and the mix of cars with motor scooters results in perpetual gridlock. It is also a city of extraordinary dynamism. There is something happening on almost every street. And in the traffic jams, you have time to contemplate those streets in detail.



Bali is an island of great beauty, complete with mountains, white beaches, blue waters and throngs of tourists. Since I am one of those tourists, I will not trouble you with the usual tourist nonsense of wanting to be in a place where there are no tourists. The hypocrisy of tourists decrying commercialization is tedious. I am here for the beaches, and they are expensive. The locals with whom tourists claim to want to mingle can’t come into the resort, and tourists leaving the resort will have trouble finding locals who are not making a living off the tourists. As always, the chance of meeting “locals” as tourists usually define them — people making little money in picturesque ways — is not easy.



What is clear in both Jakarta and Bali is that the locals are tired of picturesque poverty, however much that disappoints the tourists. They want to live better and, in particular, they want their children to live better. We were driven by a tour guide to places where we bought what my wife assures me is art (my own taste in art runs to things in museums and tigers made of velvet). We spent the requisite money on art at places our guide delivered us to, I assume for suitable compensation.



The guide was interesting. His father was a rice farmer who owned some land, and now he is a tour guide, which in Bali, I gather, is not a bad job by any means if you have deals with the hotel (which he undoubtedly has). But it was his children who fascinated me. He had three sons, two of whom were in universities. The movement from rice farmer to university student in three generations is not trivial. That it happened with the leaders Indonesia had during that time is particularly striking, since by all reasonable measures these leaders have been, until recently, either rigidly ideological (Sukarno) or breathtakingly self-serving (Sukarno’s daughter, Megawati).



When I looked at some of Indonesia’s economic statistics, the underlying reason for this emerged. Since 1998, when Indonesia had its meltdown, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) has grown at roughly 5 percent per year, an amount substantial, consistent and above all sustainable, unlike the 8 and 9 percent growth rates before the collapse. Indonesia is now the 18th largest economy in the world, ranking just behind Turkey.



All of that is nice, but for this: Indonesia ranks 109th in per capita GDP. Indonesia’s population is about 237 million. Its fertility rate is only 2.15 births per woman, just above a stable population — though being just above stable still means substantial growth. Indonesia is a poor country, albeit not as poor as it was, and its GDP continues to rise. Given its stable government and serious efforts to control corruption, which systemically diverts wealth away from the general population, this growth can continue. But whether the stability and anti-corruption efforts of the past six years can continue is an open question, as is the prosperity in Jakarta, the tourism in Bali (recall the jihadist attacks there in 2002 and 2005) and whether our guide’s third son will receive a college education.



I saw three Indonesias (and I can assure you there are hundreds more). One was the Indonesia of Jakarta’s elite, Westernized and part of the global elite found in most capitals that is critical for managing any country’s rise to some degree of prosperity. Jakarta’s elite will do well from that prosperity, make no mistake, but they are also indispensable to it. Another Indonesia was the changing one that our upwardly mobile tour guide saw through his children’s eyes. The third was the one in which a little girl, perhaps 4 years old, begged in traffic on the road from the airport in Bali. I have seen these things in many countries and it is difficult to know what to make of them yet. For me, going to Indonesia is not the same as going to Eastern Europe. I know what is lurking under the current there. Indonesia is new for me, and I will be back. For now, let me describe to you not so much the country of Indonesia but how I try to learn about a place I know only from books (and even then relatively little).





Strategic Positions



Nietzsche once said that modern man eats knowledge without hunger. What he meant by that is that modern man learns without passion and without necessity. I didn’t go to Indonesia without either. What interests me most about Indonesia is not its economy or its people — although that might change as I learn more. What interests me now is Indonesia’s strategic position in the world at this point in time.



To determine that position, we must first look at China. China is building an aircraft carrier. Now, one aircraft carrier without cruisers, destroyers, submarines, anti-missile systems, satellite-targeting capabilities, mid-ocean refueling capabilities and a thousand other things is simply a ship waiting to be sunk. Nevertheless, it could be the nucleus of something more substantial in the coming decades (not years).



When I look at a map of China’s coast I am constantly struck by how contained China is. In the north, where the Yellow and East China seas provide access to Shanghai and Qingdao (the home of China’s northern naval fleet), access to the Pacific is blocked by the line of Japan-Okinawa-Taiwan and the islands between Okinawa and Japan. Bases there are not the important point. The important point is that the Chinese naval — or merchant — fleet must pass through choke points that can be controlled by the United States, hundreds of miles to the east. The situation is even worse for China in the South China Sea, which is completely boxed in by the line of Taiwan-Philippines-Indonesia-Singapore, and worse still when you consider the emerging naval cooperation between the United States and Vietnam, which has no love for the Chinese.



The Chinese are trying to solve this problem by building ports in Pakistan and Myanmar. They say these are for commercial use, and I believe them. Isolated ports at such a distance, with tenuous infrastructure connecting them to China and with sea-lane control not assured, are not very useful. They work in peacetime but not during war, and it is war, however far-fetched, that navies are built for.



China’s biggest problem is not that it lacks aircraft carriers; it is that it lacks an amphibious capability. Even if it could, for example, fight its way across the Formosa Strait to Taiwan (a dubious proposition), it is in no position to supply the multi-divisional force needed to conquer Taiwan. The Chinese could break the blockade by seizing Japan, Okinawa or Taiwan, but that isn’t going to happen.



What could happen is China working to gain an economic toehold in the Philippines or Indonesia, and using that economic leverage to support political change in those countries. A change in the political atmosphere would not by itself permit the Chinese navy to break into the Pacific or eliminate the American ability to blockade Chinese merchant ships. The United States doesn’t need land bases to control the passages through either of these countries from a distance.



Rather, what would change the game is if China, having reached an economic entente with either country, was granted basing privileges there. That would permit the Chinese to put aircraft and missiles on the islands, engage the U.S. Navy outside the barrier formed by the archipelagos and force the U.S. Navy back, allowing free passage.



Now, this becomes much more complicated when we consider U.S. countermeasures. China already has massive anti-ship missiles on its east coast. The weakness of these missiles is intelligence and reconnaissance. In order to use those missiles the Chinese have to have a general idea of where their targets are, and ships move around a lot. That reconnaissance must come from survivable aircraft (planes that won’t be destroyed when they approach the U.S. fleet) and space-based assets — along with the sophisticated information architecture needed to combine the sensor with the shooter.



The United States tends to exaggerate the strength of its enemies. This can be a positive trait because it means extra exertion. In the Cold War, U.S. estimates of Soviet capabilities outstripped Soviet realities. There are many nightmare scenarios about China’s capabilities circulating, but we suspect that most are overstated. China’s ambitions outstrip its capabilities. Still, you prepare for the worst and hope for the best.



In this case, the primary battlefield is not yet the passages through the archipelago. It is the future of our Indonesian driver’s third child. If he gets to go to college, the likelihood of Indonesia succumbing to Chinese deals is limited. The history of Chinese-Indonesian relations is not particularly good, and little short of desperation would force an alliance. American Pacific strategy should be based on making certain that neither Indonesia nor the Philippines is desperate.





A Focus of History



Indonesia has another dimension, of course. It is the largest Muslim country in the world, and one that has harbored and defeated a significant jihadist terrorist group. As al Qaeda crumbles, the jihadist movement may endure. The United States has an ongoing interest in this war and therefore has an interest in Indonesian stability and its ability to suppress radical Islam inside its borders and, above all, prevent the emergence of an Indonesian-based al Qaeda with an intercontinental capability.



Thus, Indonesia becomes a geopolitical focus of three forces — China, Islamists and the United States. This isn’t the first time Indonesia has been a focus of history. In 1941, Japan launched the attack on Pearl Harbor to paralyze the American fleet there and facilitate seizing what was then called the Netherlands East Indies for its supplies of oil and other raw materials. In the first real resource war — World War II — Indonesia was a pivot. Similarly, during the Cold War, the possibility of a communist Indonesia was frightening enough to the United States that it ultimately supported the removal of Sukarno as president. Indonesia has mattered in the past, and it matters now.



The issue is how to assure a stable Indonesia. If the threat — however small — rests in China, so does the solution. Chinese wage rates are surging and Chinese products are becoming less competitive in the global marketplace. The Chinese have wanted to move up the economic scale from being an exporter of low-cost industrial products to being a producer of advanced technologies. As the recent crash of China’s high-speed train shows, China is a long way from achieving that goal.



There is no question that China is losing its export edge in low-grade industrial products. One of the reasons Western investors liked China was that a single country and a single set of relationships allowed them to develop production facilities that could supply them with products. All the other options aside from India, which has its own problems, can handle only a small fraction of China’s output. Indonesia, with nearly a quarter-billion people still in a low-wage state, can handle more.



The political risk has substantially declined in the last few years. If it continues to drop, Indonesia will become an attractive alternative to China at a time when Western companies are looking for alternatives. That would energize Indonesia’s economy and further stabilize the regime. A more stable Indonesian regime would remove any attraction for an alignment with China and any opportunities for Chinese or Islamist subversion — even if, in the latter case, prosperity is not enough to eliminate it.



When we look at a map, we see the importance of Indonesia. When we look at basic economic statistics, we see the strength and weakness of Indonesia. When we consider the role of China in the world economy and its current problems, we see Indonesia’s opportunities. But it comes down to this: If my guide’s third son can go to college, and little girls no longer have to dart into traffic and beg, Indonesia has a strong future, and that future depends on it becoming the low-cost factory to the world.



Life is more complex than that, of course, but it is the beginning of understanding the possibilities. In the end, few rational people looking at China in 1975 would have anticipated China in 2011. That unexpected leap is what Indonesia needs and what will determine its geopolitical role. But these are my first thoughts on Indonesia. I will need to come back here many times for any conclusions.







Read more: Geopolitical Journey: Indonesia's Global Significance
http://www.stratfor.com/

China & Myanmar

I wanted to send you two articles which show the contrast of two nations which have suffered natural disasters this year are dealing with the disasters. The first, Myanmar Burma, has not allowed much of any aid into their country and is in fact using the disaster to strengthen their hold on power. The other, China, although still a dictatorship which has been facing pressure earlier this year because of their policies on Tibet and Sudan, nevertheless is allowing charities to enter and give aid. It is sad when disasters hit anywhere, but taking advantage of situations like this are very saddening. I hope you find the articles interesting.

http://jeffandrus.blogtownhall.com/
HELL HOLE
Posted by Jeff Andrus on Tuesday, June 10, 2008 9:11:47 PM
The bodies floated.They were part of the aftermath of last month's Cyclone Nargis that cut across the Irrawdy Delta of Myanmar. The sawing vortex of wind and rain, and the storm surge that followed killed 23,000 people and left a million homeless. Nature's worst is child's play compared to the atrocities committed by the government.Myanmar used to be called Burma when it was a British colony. Independence came in 1947. A leftist military coup in 1962 instigated "The Burmese Way of Socialism," kicking off more than 40 years of steady economic decline and periodic outbursts of ethnic cleansing. In 1989 the ruling generals changed the name of their killing fields to Myanmar. The current strong man is General Than Shwe.After refusing foreign aid to victims of Cyclone Nargis, Shwe's State Peace and Development Council allowed show displays of humanitarianism. Among them was a tent city put up and supplied by the United Nations. When the reporters left with their sound bites and footage, the refuges were sent packing and the food distributed to Shwe's soldiers.I know two people whose names I can't mention because they are returning to Myammar to continue whatever they can do. In the past they set up home churches and brought money to buy food and medical supplies from the regional thugs. Bringing material directly into the country is vorboten because there is less chance for profiteering.The churches they help shepherd no longer exist. The people fled to a town above water. There the military conscripted males over the age 12, and put the elderly, women and children into boats. They boats, they were told, would take them to a refugee center.None arrived.
A medical missionary has video of the bodies that floated. They were bloated and pierced by bullets.


http://www.townhall.com/Columnists/HughHewitt/2008/05/22/helping_china_in_an_hour_of_need
Helping China In An Hour Of Need
As the pictures continue to arrive from the region of China impacted by the massive 7.9 earthquake of last week, the reality of the scale of the devastation sinks in.
80,000 are dead or missing, and that number will almost certainly rise.
7,000 schools collapsed. 4,000 children were orphaned in the space of minutes.
There are an estimated 5 million newly homeless Chinese.
The response to such an epic of suffering ought to be generosity, and indeed hundreds of thousands of Americans have been digging deep to send private aid to China.
On my radio show I have pointed listeners to Caring for China, which has been operating orphanages and medical clinics in the earthquake zone for more than 25 years. The Christians who run Caring for China can be trusted to get the donations directly to those suffering in the devastated cities and towns. You can contribute online to an earthquake relief fund at CaringforChina.org, or via a check made out to Caring for China and sent to their American office at 3300 S. Fairview, Santa Ana, CA 92704.
Think about the shocks to the American political system that followed Katrina and 9/11. Disasters -- both natural and man-made-- impact cultures and governments in profound and lasting ways. Many journalists are shocked at the changes the PRC's government have initiated in the aftermath of the quake, allowing private efforts completely divorced from the party or the state to rush aid to the region. Given that the destruction and loss of life has been easily 50 times that which followed Katrina ashore in Louisiana and Mississippi, we can expect China to engage in a long period of soul-searching after the rush to dig out the trapped and bury the dead slows.
When the Chinese begin to mix their massive grieving with the necessity of looking forward and to preventing a recurrence, they will also have occasion to ask who came to their aid? Americans certainly did after 9/11, and again after Katrina.
While the Party in the time of Mao and even in the last years of the 20th century could effectively control the media, the new China is wired, and the Chinese are well aware of the terrible scale of the disaster that has hit them. They are also aware of who is helping them. This is not a time to allow legitimate grievances over heparin and other product scandals or rightful concern over PRC aggressiveness towards Tibet or Taiwan to limit the response to the human suffering and the vast changes set off by the shaking of the ground.