I wanted to send this article that talks about some of the events going on in the Middle East and how they could affect Oil Prices over the near term. As it is, Oil prices are rising and that is occuring without any of the major events listed below happening. Anyway, I thought you might find this interesting to read along with our book The Middle East in Bible Prophecy here
http://www.ucg.org/booklets/ME/Now... let me share with you the dire warning we talked about...
A Collaborator Countdown:The 4 Horseman of the Oil Apocalypse
There's a good chance you'd never heard of Sheik Hassan Nasrallah. And least not until very recently, during last year's radical unrest close to the Israeli border. But famous in the U.S. or not, Nasrallah's stock is soaring in the world of Islam.
See, it's Hassan Nasrallah who heads up Hezbollah, the known terrorist organization that dominates the southern half of Lebanon. It was Nasrallah who secretly encouraged his fighters to take on Israel with shoulder rockets. And Nasrallah, too, who more recently tried to overthrow Lebanon's non-Muslim government.
What's behind it all? Nine years ago, Nasrallah's son was killed in a battle with Israelis. He's angry to the core. He's also very powerful.
Here's where it gets complicated.
Lebanon isn't a major oil power. In the late 1960s, it was even known as the "Switzerland of the Middle East." Modern. Moderate. Beirut was a playground for the rich, a beach town dotted with discos and exclusive hotels.
Very different from what you see today.
And a large and very driven group of Muslims want to keep it different. For 16 years, in fact, they fought civil war with Christians and others in their country. It got so rough Syria stepped in to end it.
When Rafik Hariri, a self-made billionaire, became prime minister and tried to rebuild Lebanon into a modern state all over again... this activist group of Muslims did what any voter would do. On Feb. 14, 2005... they blew up his car with 1,000 kg of TNT.
What Does This Matter to the Price of Oil?
Insiders, the CIA and just about everyone else believe that the group behind the murder of the ex-prime minister... and the backers of the Hezbollah terrorist organization... are not Lebanese at all. They're Syrian. And Iranian.
Hariri wanted Lebanon for Lebanon.
Both Iran and Syria want to use Lebanon, and especially Hezbollah, to stir up fights with Israel.
When Israel fights, the Middle East gets hot.
And oil prices go up.
Iran sends over $100 million a year in secret financing to Hezbollah. Along with guns and shoulder rockets and other sophisticated weapons. And most of these get shipped secretly through Syria, one of Iran's few real allies in the Middle East.
The bigger Hezbollah gets, the further Iran's reach across the region.
Tel Aviv wants to send missiles into Tehran? Go ahead. Iran will unleash Hezbollah on northern Israel. Just like it did that summer. And in propaganda terms, it was a huge success.
Hezbollah doubled its victory by handing out bags of money to fellow Muslims whose houses were destroyed by the bombing. Today, that's made Hezbollah even more popular across the Middle East than al-Qaida. Hezbollah's gaining strength. And that's the problem.
Edward Walker is a Middle East expert. He heads up the Middle East Institute and was once ambassador to both Egypt and to Israel. "Hezbollah," he says, "is more popular than sliced bread." All the "wrong guys" are getting a boost from the current situation.
Keep in mind, before Sept. 11, the FBI considered Hezbollah an even bigger terror risk to the U.S. than al-Qaida.
Today, Hezbollah has taken terror mainstream. Imagine al-Qaida, but with seats in Congress. Hezbollah has done almost that. It's recently won seats in Lebanon's parliament... it's now hugely popular with a certain, large group of Lebanese... only the biggest danger about Hezbollah is that it doesn't really work for Lebanon at all.
No, it serves a much bigger, more dangerous master...
The Middleman:Playing a Most Dangerous Game
While almost nobody on the international scene pays attention, Syria -- next to Lebanon --?plays a dangerous game. To understand, you need to know Syria's young president, Bashar al-Assad.
His family has ruled Syria for more than 30 years. They hold "elections." They win with 99.99% of the vote every time.
Bashar was an eye doctor, trained in the U.K. At age 34, his dictator father died. He took over and pretended to be a moderate. But he quickly changed his tune.
Syria also has no real stake in the Middle East.
What it does have, however, is a long-lasting friendship with all the wrong kind of people. In 1985, Syria helped finance the terrorists who hijacked the Achille Lauro cruiseliner.
In 1983, Syria helped pay to bomb a military bunker in Beirut, killing 241 U.S. Marines. Again in 1985, it also funded the hijackers of TWA Flight 847.
Syrian backing is even linked to the Munich Olympic massacre in 1972. And investigators say they can directly link Syria to killing Rafik Hariri in February 2005. Though of course, Syria denies it.
Why?
Syria wants the Golan Heights.
The Golan is a key fresh water source in the parched Middle East. It's also a perfect lookout into Damascus. And Syria doesn't want anybody but itself to own that advantage. But it lost the Golan to Israel in 1967 and 1973. Iran has promised to help Syria get it back, even if that means throwing its military might in a future war with Israel.
In fact, days after Hariri was killed in Lebanon, Iran's foreign minister flew to Damascus and forged a "united front" with Syria, including military support.
What does Iran get in exchange?
Syria lets Iran use Syrian territory as a land bridge over the border into Lebanon... so Iran can keep Hezbollah fully armed. As another part of its role in the new Middle East alliance, Syria also feeds support to new resistance fighters in Iraq...
The Radical:Why We'll Never Gain Access to Iraqi Oil
Democracy rarely happens overnight. The U.S. Civil War came along 85 years after the nation got started.
How's democracy taking hold in Iraq? Not too well. Meet Moztada al-Sadr, son-in-law of a grand ayatollah.
He's young. But he can trace his family lineage directly back to the prophet Muhammad. That gets him a lot of credibility.
al-Sadr heads the Mahdi Army. It's not an official army. It's a band of 10,000 Shiite militiamen, vying for control of Iraq.
His followers battle coalition troops in Baghdad. They've taken control of cities in the south. They run police stations, holy sites and political offices.
His own father, two brothers and father-in-law were all murdered by Hussein's secret police.
In a U.S.-run poll in Iraq, al-Sadr ranked more popular than Iraq's "elected" prime minister.
Then you've got the "Badr Brigade." The Brigade is also Shia. It's the armed wing, in fact, of SCIRI, the party of Shia Muslims who dominate the newly elected Iraqi Parliament.
Shia Muslims - or Shiites - are a sect of Islam. Around the world, there aren't many of them. But in the Middle East, the 140 million Shia Muslims make up more than half the population of the entire region.
The other half is Sunni Muslim. Shiites and Sunnis hate each other. They have been at war in Iraq ever since Saddam fell. They have been at war across the Middle East for the last 1,374 years.
The 40% of people supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon are also Shia. President Assad in Syria is Alawi, which is a Shia subgroup. The new president of Iraq is Shia. In fact, 60% of the Iraqi population is Shia.
Sadr City, Karbala and Najaf, Iraq... they're all jammed with Shia Muslims. The oppressed Shiites partied in the streets when Saddam fell. Today, they terrorize the coalition troops and take potshots at their Sunni neighbors.
They call it the "Balance of Terror" - a cycle of violence and counterviolence between Sunnis and Shias across the region - that's supposed to keep Shia populations from being marginalized ever again.
This virtually guarantees the Iraqi civil war will happen. In fact, even though Washington says we don't have to worry, our own top generals, CIA insiders and Middle East experts all say it's already begun.
Gen. John Abizaid was our top U.S. military commander in the Middle East. Here's what he had to say recently: "I believe that sectarian violence is probably as bad as I have ever seen it."
And William Patey, the U.K. ambassador to Iraq who just retired, says, "The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy."
Bush and his?advisors have turned a deaf ear. They're in denial.
But that doesn't mean you should ignore the writing on the wall.
Think about it. Shias dominate the new Iraqi government. This is a "New Middle East" all right. Just not the one anyone ever hoped for.
The Iraqi Highway Patrol, run mostly by Shias, doubles as a not-so-secret Sunni Arab death squad. When Sunni's bombed the Shias' Golden Mosque, Shias bombed eight Sunni mosques and killed over 50 Sunni Arabs in retaliation.
Gunmen spraying worshippers with automatic fire during morning prayers... blasts in a crowded marketplace... over 1,000 Shia dead in a stampede, on rumors of a Sunni suicide bomber.
The last time Shia militias threatened to blow up oil fields in southern Iraq, they shut down - cutting off 90% of Baghdad's oil revenue. This is the seat of world oil wealth on edge, worse than at any other time in history!
And behind it all...
The Mastermind: How a Blacksmith's Son Just Engineered the End of Cheap Oil
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the son of a blacksmith.
He's smart. With a PHD in engineering. He's also ruthless.
In the late 1970s, he graduated as one of the top students from Iran's version of MIT. He joined the Revolutionary Guard.
During the Iran-Iraq war, Ahmadinejad trained 12-year-old boys to march into mine fields, sacrificing their own lives, to make way for the Iranian army.
After his election, he said in his speech, "Thanks to the blood of the martyrs, a new Islamic revolution is arisen..." He's doing everything possible to make sure he's right.
Take Iraq.
The Iran-Iraq war was one of the bloodiest battles of the 20th century. Iraq was run by Sunni Muslims then. Now it's run by Shiites. And Iran, also nearly 91% Shiite, is sending electricity to Iraq. It's sending wheat. It's sending $1 billion in foreign aid.
Ahmadinejad knows what he's doing.
Iran just offered to pay for three pipelines running across Shia territory in Iraq. Iran has offered to open its ports, so war-torn Iraq can use them for shipping. And every day, Iraq will ship 150,000 barrels of light crude direct to Iran, for refining. Remember, Iran also funds Hezbollah in Lebanon. And it's busily buying influence in Syria.
Don't look now, but...
Iran Just Pulled the Persian Rug out From Under Our Feet!
You've seen, so far, how much of a chip Iran has on its shoulder. The British sailors... the rebuffed U.N. inspections... the direct verbal challenges to the authority of the West.
What happens once Iran gets the bomb?
Everything changes. Shias unite across the region, behind the new dominant power in Tehran. The Sunni House of Saud... Saudi Arabia's ruling family... collapses. Along with any remaining alliance with the U.S. More radical fundamentalists step in to take charge.
Inside the region, the Sunnis get isolated - away from most of the oil. Now it's the Shiites who get to call the shots. And with the backing of the Iranian oil bourse, they're not afraid to price oil through the ceiling.
Here's what our own government says, through the U.S. Council on Foreign Affairs:
"Tehran sees itself as a regional power and the center of a Persian and Shiite zone of influence stretching from Mesopotamia to Central Asia. Freed from the menace of the Taliban in Afghanistan and of Saddam in Iraq, Iran is riding the crest of the wave of Shiite revival, aggressively pursuing nuclear power and demanding international recognition of its interests."
Oil markets hate uncertainty.
The "Open Oil War" of 2008
Take a look at this map...
What you see is a "Shia tide" or "crescent" cutting a swath across the Middle East.
Iran's Shiites... along with Shiites in Pakistan and Afghanistan... the Shia majority in Iraq... the Shia-friendly government in Syria... and Hezbollah and the large Shia movement in Lebanon... add up to a total 140 million people.
That has Washington worried. It has Saudi Arabia even more worried.
Saudi Arabia is mostly Sunni. In Saudi schools, they teach Sunni kids that Shiites aren't real Muslims. And that it would be better to marry a Christian or a Jew than to marry into the Shia sect.
Here's the thing...
Nearly 20% of Saudi Arabia is also Shia. But the land the Shia occupy happens to include virtually all of Saudi Arabia's biggest and most important oil fields. It's only a matter of time before the Shia movement in the north... reaches the Shia communities across the major Middle Eastern countries to the south.
Already, Saudi Arabia is feeling like a second-class power.
The House of Saud is in trouble. Its stubborn alliance with the U.S. has destroyed local credibility. Many of its 5,000 princes live decadent lives that don't square with Wahhabism, Saudi Arabia's especially strict form of Sunni Islam. And new geological research shows Saudi Arabia's oil fields may be drying up.
Meanwhile, Iran's economy is bigger than Saudi Arabia's. Iran is mineral rich, it's people are highly educated and its army is powerful and well rested. And by forging an alliance with the Shia majority in Iraq, it's now combining two of the largest oil deposits in the world.
For decades, Iran has hung back in the shadows.
With the growing Shia alliance across the Middle East, that's changing radically.
Iran's current super-nationalist, hostile government is like Japan in the 1930s. Not just overconfident, but ready to assert its place in the world. With nuclear weapons. With support of terrorists. With missile threats. And with tentacles of subversive ideological support reaching from Pakistan to Lebanon.
Is it any wonder other energy investors are watching closely?
In a report from Barclays Capital, energy analysts Paul Horsnell and Kevin Norrish wrote, "Iran's external relations remain the key wild card in the oil market."
We agree.
A violent new revolution is headed for the Middle East. An "open war" that spreads across borders. In the crossfire, over 696 BILLION barrels of valuable oil are at risk. At exactly the time when the world can't afford a constricted oil supply.
As this powder keg implodes, the impact will be enormous.
Consider, the world's spare oil capacity is much less than 2 million barrels per day. The loss of Iran's 2.5 million barrels in daily exports ALONE would breach that limit instantly... almost certainly sending the oil price to $100 a barrel overnight... and much higher over the months that follow.
And if Iran shuts down tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, an Iran-controlled waterway through which 80% of Persian Gulf oil passes... prices could rocket quickly past $125 per barrel... even as high as $150 per barrel... propelling the world economy and markets into a nose dive.
http://www.isecureonline.com/Reports/OST/EOSTGA28/Default.cfm?o=1491777&u=11032080&l=796709&PAGE=2&PCODE=EOSTGA28&ALIAS=SCOW
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