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Greece, Germany and the Future of Europe
I have a few thoughts about Greece, its role in Europe and where this all might lead.
While citizens in Greece were voting July 5 on whether to accept stringent EU demands for economic reform, I decided to go to a Greek restaurant for dinner. I have not had gyros for some time. It was delicious, and it reminded me of my only real contact with Greek culture today.
A lot of attention has focused on the Greek financial meltdown and the drama it is creating within the European Union. Late on July 12 Greece agreed so a very stringent finalcial plan put upon it by the EU. Billions of Euros of Greece assets have been put under EU control to insure compliance with the terms. It amounts to a near takover of the Greek economy by the EU. It is unprecedented. The plan has yet to be accepted by the Greek Parliament. Fallout within Greece will certainly test the limits of the Greek state.
I have a few thoughts about Greece, its role in Europe and where this all might lead.
The EU is too big to fail. Much has been invested in the European Union, and its leading nations are not about to let it fail because of Greece’s profligate spending habits. Concerns that the EU will fail if Greece exits the union are unfounded. The treaty organization could be shaken but not to point of dissolution. The EU is the world’s largest economic trade bloc. It is not going anywhere.
The Euro as a currency is here to stay. Greece may leave the monetary union, reissue the drachma and go it alone, like other EU states. But too much has been invested in the Euro to see it go down the drain. For any nation state its currency represents something intangible about its presence and its reputation among the nations. For the EU to ditch the Euro at this stage would be unthinkable. Look for Germany and the core EU states to double down on their bet.
The EU has a leadership problem. Months of negotiations and talks with Greece have shown that no current European leader has the weight to lead the union through difficult phases like this current economic period. Add in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposing NATO’s impotence, and you have a threat to continental stability unseen since the end of the Cold War. No one in Western Europe has shown the will to stand toe to toe with the Kremlin thug known as Vladimir Putin.
Since Germany is the leading member in the EU, it has taken the lead in dealing with the Greece problem. Now is a good time to watch what Germany’s next move will be. Germany is the nation with the ability to chart the future for the EU.
Greece is not leaving Europe. With all its financial problems it occupies a strategic piece of real estate on Europe’s southern flank. North Africa, a decidedly Islamic region, is directly across the Mediterranean. The Middle East, a region in crisis, is to its east. The Balkans, traditionally the powder keg of Europe, is to the north. Europe’s political stability is vital to the EU. The blood of ancient Europe flows through Greece, and it is tied to the political fate of the peninsula by history, culture, religion and Bible prophecy. Europe cannot stand by to either see Greece dissolve into social chaos or tilt toward Russia in some new-found alliance. Greece defines key parts of Europe’s foundation, and it isn’t going anywhere.
Europe does have a problem beyond the immediate headlines with Greece. Its credibility as a world leader has been damaged. This cannot go on and will have to be addressed at some future point. Europe itself is too big and too important to be crippled by the economic deficiencies of a nation like Greece. Someday a large and very real crisis will erupt upon Europe that will threaten its future—perhaps a massive terror attack that takes out a significant landmark or segment of the population. Or it could be another economic meltdown from another world region. Something big will happen. When it does Europe will shake off its stupor and surprise the world.
But by then it will be a different world.
A lot of attention has focused on the Greek financial meltdown and the drama it is creating within the European Union. Late on July 12 Greece agreed so a very stringent finalcial plan put upon it by the EU. Billions of Euros of Greece assets have been put under EU control to insure compliance with the terms. It amounts to a near takover of the Greek economy by the EU. It is unprecedented. The plan has yet to be accepted by the Greek Parliament. Fallout within Greece will certainly test the limits of the Greek state.
I have a few thoughts about Greece, its role in Europe and where this all might lead.
The EU is too big to fail. Much has been invested in the European Union, and its leading nations are not about to let it fail because of Greece’s profligate spending habits. Concerns that the EU will fail if Greece exits the union are unfounded. The treaty organization could be shaken but not to point of dissolution. The EU is the world’s largest economic trade bloc. It is not going anywhere.
The Euro as a currency is here to stay. Greece may leave the monetary union, reissue the drachma and go it alone, like other EU states. But too much has been invested in the Euro to see it go down the drain. For any nation state its currency represents something intangible about its presence and its reputation among the nations. For the EU to ditch the Euro at this stage would be unthinkable. Look for Germany and the core EU states to double down on their bet.
The EU has a leadership problem. Months of negotiations and talks with Greece have shown that no current European leader has the weight to lead the union through difficult phases like this current economic period. Add in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposing NATO’s impotence, and you have a threat to continental stability unseen since the end of the Cold War. No one in Western Europe has shown the will to stand toe to toe with the Kremlin thug known as Vladimir Putin.
Since Germany is the leading member in the EU, it has taken the lead in dealing with the Greece problem. Now is a good time to watch what Germany’s next move will be. Germany is the nation with the ability to chart the future for the EU.
Greece is not leaving Europe. With all its financial problems it occupies a strategic piece of real estate on Europe’s southern flank. North Africa, a decidedly Islamic region, is directly across the Mediterranean. The Middle East, a region in crisis, is to its east. The Balkans, traditionally the powder keg of Europe, is to the north. Europe’s political stability is vital to the EU. The blood of ancient Europe flows through Greece, and it is tied to the political fate of the peninsula by history, culture, religion and Bible prophecy. Europe cannot stand by to either see Greece dissolve into social chaos or tilt toward Russia in some new-found alliance. Greece defines key parts of Europe’s foundation, and it isn’t going anywhere.
Europe does have a problem beyond the immediate headlines with Greece. Its credibility as a world leader has been damaged. This cannot go on and will have to be addressed at some future point. Europe itself is too big and too important to be crippled by the economic deficiencies of a nation like Greece. Someday a large and very real crisis will erupt upon Europe that will threaten its future—perhaps a massive terror attack that takes out a significant landmark or segment of the population. Or it could be another economic meltdown from another world region. Something big will happen. When it does Europe will shake off its stupor and surprise the world.
But by then it will be a different world.
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