A timely post from http://www.vdare.com about Donald Trump's immigration speech. This follows this post about the allegations about Donald Trump doing housing discrimination. This follows this post about rap songs referencing Donald Trump.
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After two weeks of
speculation of whether he would soften his stance on immigration, Donald Trump gave an amazing, astounding, detailed and
rock solid speech outlining his patriotic immigration reform agenda. Trump
reaffirmed his pledge to
secure the borders,
oppose any Amnesty, restrict refugee admissions, and enact tough
interior enforcement measures. Additionally, he supported strict
enforcement of
E-Verify and laid out principles for
legal immigration reform which unmistakably implied lower numbers and
high quality immigrants.
In this piece I will answer three questions:
- Did Trump backtrack?
- Why did he seem to be waffling before the speech?
- Will this help him win?
The short answers: No; I’m not sure; and—almost certainly, yes.
Did Trump Backtrack?
Trump clarified and, in some cases, finessed his previously
bluntly-stated positions. However, he did not alter the substance away
from patriotic immigration reform.
- No wiggle room for Amnesty: Even some of Trump’s supporters have worried that he would support some form a “touchback” Amnesty,
whereby illegal aliens would have to leave the country, but could
immediately re-apply for citizenship. But Trump in his speech said
specifically that the “one route” for illegals to obtain legal status is
“to return home and apply for re-entry like everybody else, under the
rules of the new legal immigration system that I have outlined above.”
Touchback
amnesty plans–like the one
Mike Pence proposed in 2006–include a
special visa under which the illegals are to re-apply, or simply
greatly increase legal immigration numbers
so they can quickly gain re-entry. Trump, however, made clear that
illegals “will not be awarded surplus visas, but will have to apply for
entry under the immigration caps.”
Trump concluded that we would not have any “discussion” to “consider
the appropriate disposition” of the remaining illegal aliens until
“several years” after “illegal immigration is a memory of the past.”
In other words: well into Trump’s second term, after all the bulk of the illegal aliens have been
deported or
left on their own, Trump might—
might—consider giving Amnesty to the few that remain.
- Deportation priorities: Trump said he would “set
priorities” for those he would deport, specifically “removing criminals,
gang members, security threats, visa overstays, public charges.”
It’s noteworthy that “
visa overstays” constitute
around 40% of the illegal population–including 60% of recent illegals, and Trump cited a Center for Immigration Studies
paper that found that 62% of illegal alien households received welfare.
Of course, the Obama administration has always justified its
non-enforcement of the law by saying it was prioritizing removal of
terrorists, gang members, and
violent criminals. But unlike Obama, who uses prioritizing enforcement against terrorists and violent criminals as a
euphemism to mean he won’t deport anyone else, Trump clarified that under his administration “
anyone who has entered the United States illegally is subject to deportation.”
- Deportation Force to Deportation Task Force: Probably the biggest buzz over the last couple of weeks was whether Trump would drop his call for a “deportation force.”
In his speech, Trump stated that “within ICE I am going to create a
new special deportation task force focused on identifying and quickly
removing the most dangerous criminal illegal immigrants in America who
have evaded justice.” This is not what the Main Stream Media really had
in mind by “deportation force.” But of course, ICE is
supposed to be a deportation force to begin with.
Actually, Trump never proposed a deportation force. When Mika
Brzezinski asked him “Are you going to have a massive deportation
force,” Trump just let her put words in his mouth he would support it
without elaborating. [
Trump: You’re Going To Have A “Deportation Force,” They’ll Be Humane, by Tim Haines,
Real Clear Politics, November 11, 2015]
- Muslim Ban to Country Ban: Trump stated he would
suspend “suspend the issuance of visas to any place where adequate
screening cannot occur,” specifically singling out Syria and Libya.
This differs from his previous statement that he would suspend all
Muslim immigration. This is not news, as he had modified this statement earlier. As I’ve
written,
there are pros and cons to each approach, but his fundamental
premise—that excluding potential terrorists, even if that means keeping
out some perfectly innocent babies in the toxic bathwater, is the most
effective way prevent terrorism– remains
So what was going on?
Trump and his campaign manager
Kellyanne Conway
have been giving mixed signals over the last few weeks, implying he was
“softening,” might be open to some limited Amnesty or would really back
off of deportations.
Ann Coulter was so annoyed that she said she might cancel the publicity tour for her
excellent new book In Trump We Trust if Trump embraced Amnesty [
Trump’s immigration pivot a buzzkill for Coulter’s book tour, CNN, August 26, 2016]
So why did Trump give all of his most dedicated supporters heartburn
worrying he would back down? I have no inside information, but here are a
few possibilities:
- Trump was making Beltway immigration patriot arguments poorly. Black MSNBC reporter Joy Reid tweeted
Non nobis domine! In our modest opinion, Trump’s speech sounded distinctly more like
NumbersUSA’s Roy Beck, Center for Immigration Studies’ Mark Krikorian and other
herbivorous
Beltway immigration patriots, who have emphasized that we do not need
massive deportations to get the illegal population to return to their
home country. Krikorian
calls this “
attrition through enforcement”—combining
E-Verify, cutting off welfare, and increasing interior enforcement
through cooperation with state law enforcement. [
Pew Report Shows Attrition of the Illegal Population Is Possible, By Mark Krikorian, CIS.org, November 2015]
Prior to the speech Trump rarely discussed immigration enforcement beyond deportations—something I
criticized
way back in November 2015. Now he has finally adopted the more
sophisticated attrition approach, citing CIS and using its buzzwords
like
“jobs magnet.”
But while Beck and Krikorian are good at making pretty strong policy
proposals sound much less tough than they actually are, this requires
them to use words very carefully. Trump, we must concede, does not
choose his words carefully. Thus Trump could take Roy Beck’s argument
that “we aren’t going to deport everyone, most illegals will return on
their own if we remove the jobs magnet” without mentioning E-Verify and
it would sound like amnesty.
- Internal debate: Still, Trump’s trumpeting does not
fully explain the “softening” stories. Obviously, some of his more
precise surrogates did prepare the MSM for a pivot.
The campaign recently replaced the relatively establishment Paul Manafort with Breitbart chief
Stephen Bannon
as campaign CEO and pollster Kellyanne Conway as campaign manager.
Conway was the main voice suggesting that Trump might soften his tone
ahead of the speech, telling
Face the Nation “he is not talking
about a deportation force, but he is talking about being fair and
humane.” Bannon and former Jeff Sessions aide Stephen Miller wrote the
Arizona speech (though that was always the plan). It’s possible that
there was an internal struggle with Conway, which they won.
However, it’s worth noting that Conway has been
pretty solid
on immigration long before Trump and she may have simply been pushing
the aforementioned clarifications as the “fair and humane” policies.
Indeed, as I noted, Trump even called the “Deportation Force” humane.
Conway also took the fight to Clinton’s
“Full Merkel” Amnesty/ Immigration Surge proposals, as Trump did in his speech. [
Kellyanne Conway: Clinton camp made ‘grievous error’, By David Wright, CNN, August 22, 2016]
- 3D Chess: If nothing else, Trump knows how to manipulate the media. Could that be what he was doing here?
The MSM would probably have paid no more attention to Trump’s speech than to his other recent strong statements (
here and
here and
here)
if they thought he would just give a few extra details to the same
policies he’s promoted the entire campaign. However, because there
appeared to be a big chance he would flip-flop on his signature issue,
it became his most anticipated speech since the Convention.
Maybe that’s what Trump wanted the whole time. As it is, Trump’s
rumored flip flop ended up further cementing hardline immigration
patriotism as the centerpiece of his campaign.
But will it help Trump win?
The MSM is predictably claiming that immigration patriotism will doom Trump’s chances. The
Washington Post’s James Hohmann, typified this conventional wisdom:
Republicans facing four more years in the wilderness will
long recall the raucous rally in Phoenix as a low point of the Trump
campaign, perhaps even as the moment that he definitively extinguished
his hopes of becoming president.
[Trump triples down on a losing immigration position in Phoenix, September 1, 2016]
Hohmann goes on to bring up the spectre of Proposition 187 and the damage it supposedly caused the Republican brand.
And Trump had (ill-advisedly) allowed pro-amnesty consultants like
Alfonso Aguilar onto his National Hispanic Advisory Council. The
original rumors that he would flip flop came from this Council and now many members are withdrawing their support [
Several Hispanic Trump surrogates reconsider support, by Katie Glueck & Kyle Cheney,
Politico, September 1, 2016]
VDARE.com has repeatedly debunked the myths about
Proposition 187 and the
Hispanic Vote.
Without repeating all the arguments, it’s notable that less than half
of Hispanics are eligible to vote, that they are concentrated in
non-swing states and that they turn out at the lowest level of any other
group [
Why Hispanics Don’t Have a Larger Political Voice, by Nate Cohn,
New York Times,
June 15, 2014]. Even though Trump is the first Republican Presidential
nominee to run on a true immigration patriot position, Hispanic apathy
persists, with recent polls showing they are less worried about the
outcome of the election than any other ethnic group [
In U.S., Hispanics Least Worried About Election Outcome, Gallup, July 13, 2016]
That being said, of course not every single white voter is an
immigration patriot. Furthermore, Hillary Clinton is running on an
openly anti-American immigration policy
and making it central to her campaign. The more cautious course would
have been for Trump to focus on 80-20 proxy-type issues like
Administrative Amnesty, Official English, and sanctuary cities to turn
out the White Vote.
Still I think Trump made the right decision. Had he focused on these
popular, but ultimately peripheral issues, immigration would not be
central to the campaign. And American voters have not only never had a
choice to vote on immigration patriotism—they have never heard the
arguments for it.
Take total immigration levels. Polls show about half of Americans
support reducing legal immigration levels, while 15% think it should be
increased, and 34% think it should stay the same [
U.S. Public Has Mixed Views of Immigrants and Immigration,
Pew Research Center, September 28, 2015]. If Trump had simply said
immigration should stay the same while focused on attacking Hillary for
increasing legal immigration, 85% of the country would agree with him
more than her.
Yet after hearing Trump say “legal immigration to
serve the best interests of America and its workers,” and we should “select immigrants based on their likelihood of success in U.S. society, and their
ability to be financially self-sufficient,” I believe there is every chance that reducing immigration will become an 80-20 issue.
Perhaps I am putting too much faith in the common sense of the
American people. But if Trump’s great speech in Phoenix cannot convince
them to save their country, it is already lost.
Washington Watcher [email him] is an anonymous source Inside The Beltway.