Showing posts with label swing states. Show all posts
Showing posts with label swing states. Show all posts

Monday, August 17, 2015

Editorial: The Black Vote has given us High Immigration and Gay Marriage

Editorial


While there are, and have been some spineless Republicans, the true culprit for the demise of the U.S, has been the Democratic party, which has openly camaigned for and delivered High Immigration and Gay Marriage. Yes some GOP Supreme Court Justices have gone along with this, but they have been appointed either with a Democratic Senate or the threat of a filibuster, both of these are called "being Borked" after the Democratic attack on Robert Bork.

This voting influence was covered here
http://brianleesblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/straight-outta-where-black-vote.html,

It’s tough to overstate just how critical black voters have become to today’s Democratic coalition, particularly when it comes to the Electoral College. Deconstructing exit poll data from 2012, African-American voters accounted for Obama’s entire margin of victory in seven states: Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Without these states’ 112 electoral votes, Obama would have lost decisively.

African-Americans also accounted for almost all of Obama’s margin in Wisconsin. All of these states, except Maryland, will be crucial 2016 battlegrounds.
But what about Latinos? As it turns out, Latinos accounted for Obama’s margin of victory in just four states totaling 49 electoral votes: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico. According to our number crunching, had ZERO Latinos voted in 2012, Obama would have lost the popular vote but still would have won the White House with 283 Electoral votes. Why? Because fairly or unfairly, Latino voters tend to be disproportionately clustered in states like California, Illinois, New York and Texas which simply aren’t Electoral College battlegrounds.

To be sure, a return to pre-2008 African-American turnout levels wouldn’t necessarily doom a Hillary Clinton candidacy, but it would leave her with a whole lot less margin for error in a host of swing states. For example, in Virginia, what if the African-American share of the vote had been 18 percent instead of 20 percent in 2012? We estimate Obama would have won by 1.6 percent, rather than 3.9 percent. In Ohio, what if it had been 13 percent instead of 15 percent? We estimate Obama would have won by 0.8 percent, not 3.0 percent. In Pennsylvania, what if it had been 11 percent instead of 13 percent? Obama’s edge would have shrunk from 5.4 percent to 3.4 percent.
The surge of this solidly Democratic bloc has masked Democrats’ downturn with working-class whites, who gave Obama just 36 percent nationally in 2012. According to our calculations, if the African-American share of the electorate were to drop two points in 2016, Hillary Clinton would need to do about 1.5 percent better than Obama did among all white voters just to offset that decline – a realistic goal, but one that would require reversing the party’s current trajectory with whites.The Democrats seem to believe the route to keeping the White House in 2016 is to encourage blacks to riot and loot.




Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Senate Vote Tuesday on Fast-Track Trade Authority -- Call today!‏

An interesting article from www.numbersusa.com about the TPP. This follows this post about drought and immigration. This follows this post on HOW amnesty is funded in ways other than the DHS. Remember, “Amnesty” means ANY non-enforcement of existing immigration laws! This follows this comment and this post about how to Report Illegal Immigrants! Also, you can read two very interesting books HERE.
Please follow me here.


Senate Vote Tuesday on Fast-Track Trade Authority -- Call today!‏

Your two U.S. Senators need to hear from you today! Please call the Capitol Switchboard at (202) 224-3121. See the red action box for more details.
Friends,
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has scheduled a vote for Tuesday on the fast-track trade bill that would give Pres. Obama and future presidents full negotiating authority over the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement.
NumbersUSA takes no position on trade bills in general, but we do ask for assurances that trade agreements don't make changes to existing immigration laws.
As pointed out in a 5-page memo drafted by Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala), past administrations have used fast-track trade authority to increase the number of foreign guest workers, extend the length of guest-worker visas, and reduce worker protections that cost American workers their jobs.
If Congress grants Pres. Obama fast-track authority, it forfeits its ability to amend any agreement, including provisions that could increase immigration levels. Please call your two U.S. Senators today!


Call your Senators
Please call your two U.S. Senators and urge them to oppose the fast-track trade authority bill, S.995. When the staffer answers, you can use the talking points below.
Capitol Switchboard -- (202) 224-3121

I urge you to oppose S.955, the bill that would grant fast-track trade authority to Pres. Obama. I believe Congress should retain its power to review and amend any trade agreement that the United States enters into, and by granting Pres. Obama fast-track authority, Congress would be giving up that power.

As Sen. Jeff Sessions from Alabama pointed out in his 5-page memo, free trade agreements have been used by past administrations to bypass Congress and make changes to existing immigration laws. Given this president's track record on immigration, I don't understand why you would want to give him such broad authority. Please tell the Senator to read Sen. Sessions' memo and oppose TPA.
Action Board
or click https://www.numbersusa.com/content/my/action/board


Thanks!
chris
chmielenski

Friday, September 28, 2012

Where do Colorado Congressional candidates stand on immigration?

A very interesting post from www.NumbersUSA.com about the swing state of Colorado. This follows this post about California's immigration laws.  This follows this post about how to Report Illegal Immigrants! For more that you can do to get involved click HERE and HERE and you can read a very interesting book HERE.

Where do Colorado Congressional candidates stand on immigration?‏


Ask the candidates about immigration at upcoming forum. Drop off our candidate survey to get answers!



Dear Colorado Activists,



Next Monday, October 1, candidates from four of Colorado's Congressional races will be participating in a "Federal Debate" in Thornton. They will be taking questions from the moderators and the audience on various issues. This is a great chance to ask the candidates where they stand on immigration policies!



Here is the list of candidates who will be participating:



Colorado's 2nd Congressional District:



Democratic Incumbent Jared Polis



Republican challenger Kevin Lundberg



Colorado's 4th Congressional District:



Republican Incumbent Cory Gardner



Democratic Challenger Brandon Shaffer



Colorado's 6th Congressional District:



Republican Incumbent Mike Coffman



Colorado's 7th Congressional District:



Democratic Incumbent Ed Perlmutter



Republican challenger Joe Coors



None of these candidates have filled out a NumbersUSA candidate survey asking them to clarify the positions they take on important immigration issues. You can check out all of the incomplete candidate comparisons for Colorado races here. Note that Congressman Coffman is the only True Reformer who will be attending the event.



Colorado voters deserve to know where every candidate stands on these important issues! We sent a survey to every campaign and have not received answers. This is why we need our activists in the area to deliver surveys to the candidates!



Print out a copy or two of the NumbersUSA candidate survey and bring it to your Congressional candidates. Emphasize to them how important these issues are to you as a voter. Ask them to simply fill out a survey and send it back to us.



Here is the event information:



What: 2012 Federal Debate with Congressional Candidates



Host: Metro North Chamber of Commerce



Where: Adams 12 Five Star Schools



1500 E. 128th Ave.



Thornton, CO 80241



If you cannot attend the event but you still would like to deliver a survey, below is the list of campaign headquarters for the candidates. Drop a survey off to campaign staff and ask them to make sure it gets filled out by the candidate!



*Note: Most campaign offices are open during normal business hours. Phone numbers are listed below to ensure they are open before you visit.*



Jared Polis Campaign Office Address:



2208 Pearl Street



Boulder, CO 80302



*There is a free parking lot for the building on 22nd and Pearl Street.



Phone: 303-381-0121



Kevin Lundberg Campaign Office Address:



No physical Campaign office listed.



Phone: 970-646-6720



Cory Gardner Campaign Office Address:



9227 East Lincoln Avenue #200-234



Lone Tree CO 80124



Phone: (970) 663-2679



Brandon Shaffer Campaign Office Addresses:



1. 810 9th St., Greeley, CO



2. 723 Main St., Longmont, CO



3. 11020 Pikes Peak Dr., Parker, CO



Phone: (970)364-6025



Mike Coffman Campaign Office Address:



9249 S Broadway Blvd., #200-501



Highlands Ranch, CO 80129.



Phone: 303-791-6453.



Joe Miklosi Campaign Office Address:



10730 East Bethany Drive, Suite 280



Aurora, CO



Phone: 303-745-4850



Ed Perlmutter Campaign Office Address:



3258 Youngfield St.



Wheat Ridge, CO 80033



Phone: 303-459-4729



Joe Coors Campaign Office Address:



1. Golden Office



3015 Youngfield St., Golden, CO 80401



Phone: 303-526-0811



2. Adams Office



10190 Bannock St., Suite 238, Northglenn, CO 80260



Phone: 720-350-4629









Thursday, July 12, 2012

All I know is what I read in the papers about immigration

A very interesting post from http://isteve.blogspot.com/ about Barack Obama's polling numbers after his amnesty edict. This follows this post about Arizona's 1070. . This follows this post about Barack Obama's Amnesty Edict. This follows this post about the Black Caucus hurting Black Americans with their immigration stand. This follows this post about how to Report Illegal Immigrants! For more that you can do to get involved click HERE and you can read this very interesting book HERE!

All I know is what I read in the papers




We heard over and over again that Obama's Administrative Amnesty was a political masterstroke, but now the polls are finally in and the Washington Post reports "No Immigration Bounce for Obama." It turns out that -- What do you know? -- immigration is a bad issue for Obama, especially in swing states (in red above -- and, no, I don't know what the right half of the graph means.)





What does make a difference is the sheer racial change created by immigration. If the U.S. still had the demographics of 1980, Obama would likely lose as badly as Carter. As brilliant GOP strategic thinkers like Rove, Bush, and McCain argued, therefore the Republicans should speed up demographic change.



Friday, June 22, 2012

Sean Trende: Why The Sailer Strategy Dooms Obamnesty

A very interesting post from http://www.vdare.com/ about the fact that Barack Obama's amnesty makes him LESS likely to get reelected. This follows this post about the rational to fight Barack Obama's amnesty executive order. This follows this post about Marco Rubio's DREAM Act. This follows this post about the Black Caucus hurting Black Americans with their immigration stand. This follows this post about how to Report Illegal Immigrants! For more that you can do to get involved click HERE and you can read this very interesting book HERE!

Sean Trende: Why The Sailer Strategy Dooms Obamnesty






http://www.vdare.com/posts/sean-trende-on-the-sailer-strategy

By James Fulford


Sean Trende writes in RealClearPolitics on why Obama's Administrative Amnesty is a bad thing for Obama—for reasons that we've been talking about for more than ten years, and that we call the Sailer Strategy. (This is an excerpt, and the links in it are Trende's)







1) Latinos are underrepresented in swing states. While the Latino vote is frequently portrayed as a critical voting bloc, in truth it is concentrated in only a few swing states with just a handful of electoral votes. The only states where Latinos make up more than 10 percent of the electorate are: Arizona (16 percent of the electorate in 2008), California (18 percent), Colorado (13 percent), Florida (14 percent), Nevada (15 percent), New Mexico (41 percent), and Texas (20 percent).



Of these, only Colorado, Florida, and Nevada are swing states; New Mexico and Arizona are at best borderline swing states. In Florida, the Latino vote largely (though decreasingly) comprises voters of Cuban descent and is therefore atypical of other Latino electorates.



So in the end, we’re talking about Colorado and Nevada as the states where this is likely to produce dividends of any size, for a total of 15 electoral votes.



2) There is a trade-off here. Fifteen electoral votes could still be crucial in a close election. But here’s the rub: The analyses that focus only on the potential effect among Latino voters miss half of the equation: The potential effect among white voters.



I’ve made this point before, but consider the case of Arizona. For many liberal commentators, the silver lining to the state’s immigration bill was that it presaged the eventual death of the state’s Republican Party. By alienating Latino voters, Republicans would soon find it impossible to forge winning coalitions in the state.



To be sure, Latino voters were alienated. In 2004, George W. Bush won 43 percent of that group in Arizona. Four years later, John McCain won 41 percent. In 2010, Jan Brewer pulled in a paltry 28 percent.



Yet Brewer ran ahead of both McCain and Bush overall. The key is that her policies played well with white voters. In particular, McCain captured 60 percent of whites without college degrees and 58 percent of whites with college degrees.



Brewer actually ran somewhat behind McCain among whites with college degrees, capturing 55 percent of their vote. But among whites without college degrees, Brewer won 66 percent of the vote. This is where her increased victory margin came from.



This is important, because Obama has ongoing weaknesses with working-class white voters. So weak, in fact, that they threatened his presidential bid during the Democratic perfect storm of 2008.[Obama's Puzzling Immigration Decision By Sean Trende - June 19, 2012]





In one of George MacDonald Fraser's Flashman books, he explains that while tactics is something that needs careful study, "strategy’s another matter. At the simplest, it’s mere common sense" involving the "the age-old laws that you learn in the school playground"--I. E. how many on our side, how many on theirs.



In an election, this is a pure counting exercise. One of the earliest pieces we ran on VDARE.com was







WSJ: "Republicans need to keep courting Jewish and black voters."



By Steve Sailer on December 9, 2000 at 2:15pm



VDARE: Make that counting!





In his quest to block imaginary inroads on the "Hispanic Vote", President Obama, like Republican Hispanderers, has lost count of the voters who will actually swing the election.