Poll: Mexicans Say Amnesty Would Increase Illegal Immigration

A timely poll from www.fairus.org. For more about the concept of illegal immigration during the health care debate read here.


Poll: Mexicans Say Amnesty Would Increase Illegal Immigration
Wed Oct 14, 2009 12:30am EDT


Mexicans also Feel Mexican-Americans Should Be Loyal to Mexico
WASHINGTON, Oct. 14 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A new survey by Zogby
International finds that people in Mexico think that granting legal status to
illegal immigrants would encourage more illegal immigration to the United
States. As the top immigrant-sending country for both legal and illegal
immigrants, views on immigration in Mexico can provide insight into the likely
impact of an amnesty, as well as other questions related to immigration.
The results are on the Center for Immigration Studies' website:
http://cis.org/ZogbyPoll-EffectsOfAmnesty . Among the findings:
-- A clear majority of people in Mexico, 56 percent, thought giving legal
status to illegal immigrants in the United States would make it more
likely that people they know would go to the United States illegally.
Just 17 percent thought it would make Mexicans less likely to go
illegally. The rest were unsure or thought it would make no
difference.
-- Of Mexicans with a member of their immediate household in the United
States, 65 percent said a legalization program would make people they
know more likely to go to America illegally.
-- Two-thirds of Mexicans know someone living in the United States;
one-third said an immediate member of their household was living in
the
United States.
-- Interest in going to the United States remains strong even in the
current recession, with 36 percent of Mexicans (39 million people)
saying they would move to the United States if they could. This is
consistent with a recent Pew Research Center poll which found that
about
one-third of Mexicans would go to the United States if they could. At
present, 12 to 13 million Mexico-born people live in the United
States.
-- An overwhelming majority (69 percent) thought that the primary loyalty
of Mexican-Americans (Mexico- and U.S.-born) should be to Mexico. Just
20 percent said it should be to the United States. The rest were
unsure.
-- Also, 69 percent of people in Mexico felt that the Mexican government
should represent the interests of Mexican-Americans (Mexico- and
U.S.-born) in the United States.
-- A plurality, 39 percent, of Mexicans thought that in the last year
fewer
people they know had gone to the United States as illegal immigrants
compared to previous years. Only 27 percent thought more had gone. The
rest thought it had stayed the same or were unsure.
-- A plurality, 40 percent, also thought that in the last year more of
the
illegal immigrants they know had returned to Mexico compared to
previous
years. Only 25 percent thought the number returning had fallen. The
rest
thought it had stayed the same or were unsure.
-- Both the bad economy and increased immigration enforcement were cited
as
reasons fewer people were going to America as illegal immigrants and
more were coming back to Mexico.
Discussion
As the nation begins debates the issue of immigration, the perspective of
people in Mexico is important because Mexico is the top sending country for
both legal and illegal immigrants. In 2008 one of six new legal immigrants was
from Mexico and, according to the Department of Homeland Security, 6 out of 10
illegal immigrants come from that country. Asking people in Mexico their views
on immigration can provide insight into the likely impact of an amnesty for
illegal immigrants and other questions related to immigration.
This survey is the first to ask people in Mexico if they thought legalizing
illegal immigrants in the United States would encourage more illegal
immigration. The survey was conducted in August and September of 2009 and
consisted of 1,004 in-person interviews of adults throughout Mexico. The
findings show that a majority of people in Mexico think that an amnesty would
make it more likely that people in Mexico would come to the United States
illegally. This is especially true for people who have a member of their
households living in the United States. It is important to note that
respondents were asked specifically about whether an amnesty would make
illegal immigration more likely, not just immigration generally. Other
questions in the survey explore attitudes about migration to United States
generally, recent trends in migration, and loyalty to the United States.
The results may give pause to those lawmakers who think that an
amnesty/legalization for illegals immigrants would reduce illegal immigration
in the future. The findings of this survey indicate that an amnesty would
encourage more illegal immigration, at least from Mexico.
Methodology
The in-person survey done in Mexico for the Center for Immigration Studies by
Zogby International was of 1,004 persons 18 years of age and older. The
sampling framework was the most recent (2009) electoral sections defined by
the Federal Electoral Institute. A multi-stage sampling procedure was employed
that first randomly selected 100 electoral sections proportional to size.
Second, two house blocks were randomly selected from each section. Within each
block five households were selected using a systematic random procedure. The
margin of error for the entire sample is +/- 3.1% for a 95% confidence level.
Margins of error are larger for sub-groups.
SOURCE Center for Immigration Studies
Steven Camarota of Center for Immigration Studies, +1-202-466-8185,
sac@cis.org